Example Player1WR
EX · Example City
40%2chance of missing next game
Report: Questionable · limited practice Thursday3
If he sits, teammates gain7
Backup Receiver WR · targets+carries8% → 20% +12
How to read the cards
A plain-language guide to what each number on a PlayerRiskIQ card means, and what it does not mean.
The card, labeled
Example · not a real player
- 1Player, position, team. Tap ⓘ on a real card for the plain-English math behind every number.
- 2Big % and red bar: chance of missing the next game. A longer red bar means he's more likely to sit.
- 3Injury report line: official game status and practice participation.
- 4Usage impact: his share of the offense × chance of missing (here 30% × 40% = 12.0).
- 5Role impact: how central his role is (snaps, starter, backup drop-off) × chance of missing.
- 6Tiers and the High badge: plain text Medium is the top 20% historically. A gold High badge, plus a gold left border on the card, means a High score and at least a 25% chance of missing.
- 7Who gains if he sits: teammates whose share of the work is likely to grow.
The red bar: chance of missing
The red bar is our model's estimate of the chance this player misses his team's next game. A full bar means close to 100%. It uses the official injury report, practice participation and past injury history.
Usage impact
For quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends: how much of the offense runs through him × his chance of missing. "Share" is his part of the team's targets and carries (for a QB, pass attempts) over the last 3 team games.
High is 3.7 points or more (the top 5% of 2017–2021 players). Medium is 0.7 or more (the top 20%). Anything lower shows as "Not a key role."
Role impact
For any starter, including linemen and defenders: how central his role is × his chance of missing. Role weight comes from his snap share, whether he starts, and how big the drop-off is to the next man up (the backup's snaps and experience).
High is 3.7 points or more, Medium 0.7 or more.
The bold High badge
A card gets the bold High badge and a gold left border only when an impact score is High and his chance of missing is at least 25%. That way a star who is very likely to play doesn't get flagged.
Worked example
A receiver gets 30% of his team's targets and carries and has a 40% chance of missing. His usage impact is 0.30 × 0.40 = 0.12, shown as 12.0 points. That's above 3.7, so it's High, and since 40% is at least 25%, the card gets the bold badge.
Does a high number mean his team will probably lose?
No. These scores are descriptive: they tell you how much of a team's offense or snaps could change hands. They don't predict the score. In a test we set up before looking at results, covering 1,673 games from 2018 to 2025, adding player availability to a game model did not improve predictions of who wins or by how much. Betting lines and team plans already react to injury news.
What if two important players are out?
Read each player's card on its own, then look at the "if he sits, who gains" scenarios. Those show where the targets, carries or snaps are likely to go when teammates miss together.
A rough chance that both miss is one chance times the other (for example 50% × 40% = 20%). Treat that as a ballpark only: injuries on the same team are often linked (same game, same practice report, same unit), so the real chance can be higher or lower. We don't add scores into a team score, and two absences still don't predict a loss.
Using this for daily fantasy (DraftKings, FanDuel and others)
- Replacements: when a starter is likely out, the usage-shift and handcuffs views show who takes over the work, often a cheaper player.
- Questionable tags: chance of missing and practice trend give an early read before inactives are announced.
- Safer lineups: the risk-adjusted projection on player pages lowers expected points by the chance of missing.
- Limits: our data updates on a schedule and can lag breaking news and late scratches; always check the final inactive list about 90 minutes before kickoff. We don't show salaries or ownership.
Important
PlayerRiskIQ is for information and entertainment only, and no outcome is certain. If you play daily fantasy or bet, follow your state's age and legal rules. See our legal disclaimer for responsible-gambling help.
PlayerRiskIQ is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by DraftKings or FanDuel. Their names are used only to describe how readers might use this information.