Rules-based guide, not a validated prediction and not betting advice. Lineup call: Bench or hold if listed Out or Doubtful, or chance of missing at least 75%; Have a backup ready at 50% to 75%; otherwise Start with caution if chance of missing is 25% or more, he did not practice or was limited, he has the returning-from-injury flag, or his typical (median) fantasy points rank below the top 50% of players at his position with a range this update; Bench or hold if that rank is in the bottom 25% and he is not a QB; Start otherwise. Next man up is named when chance of missing is 25% or more. Ranges assume he plays. Every sentence is filled from the sourced fields elsewhere on this page.
Lineup call
Have a backup ready · Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup tier: Sit (No. 94 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
Why: 52% chance of missing his Week 6 game (Oct 18); practice: Did not practice (DNP); typical 7.5 PPR points ranks 47 of 157 WRs with a range this update.
Rule that fired: chance of missing 50%–75% → Have a backup ready. A simple rule, not a model.
Lineup tier: Sit · No. 94 WR by risk-adjusted points (3.6 PPR)
52% chance of missing his Week 6 game (Oct 18).
Likely range for his Week 6 game (Oct 18), if he plays: 1.5 to 18.6 PPR points.
Next man up: Tim Patrick (39% of snaps over the last 3 team games).
Team impact
If he sits: Malik McClain offense snaps 11% → 20%; Isaiah Williams target share 11% → 15%; Tim Patrick target share 5% → 9%.
Injury reports this season: Week 3 Questionable, Limited practice (Finger); Week 4 Out, Did not practice (DNP) (Finger); Week 5 Out, Did not practice (DNP) (Finger); Week 6 Did not practice (DNP).
We have no return timeline or medical detail beyond the listed report.
Games without a snap while on the New York Jets roster: Week 3, Week 4, Week 5 (of 5 team games).
How long could he be out?
He was listed Out (Finger) on the Week 5 report, his latest with a game status (none yet for Week 6). Of 219 times a player was listed Out with a hand injury (2014–2025 regular seasons), 0% missed no games, 30% missed 1 game, 22% missed 2 games, 47% missed 3 or more in a row; median 2 games. This is history, not a prognosis for him.
Held-out check: shares from 2014–2021 differed from what happened in 2022–2025 by up to 15 points for this group, so read these as rough history only.
Counts consecutive team games missed (0 offensive and 0 defensive snaps, or inactive or on a reserve list) starting with the game the listing was for; byes are skipped; runs cut short by the end of the season or a roster move are kept only if they had reached 3 games. Groups: status and body part, then status and position group, then status, whichever first has at least 30 past listings. nflverse injury reports, snap counts and weekly rosters, 2014–2025. No medical detail and no return timeline.
Similar past cases: median 2 games missed in a row.
History, not a prognosis.
Missed no games0%
Missed 1 game30%
Missed 2 games22%
Missed 3 or more47%
Next man up if he sits: Tim Patrick, likely range for his Week 6 game (Oct 18), if he plays: 0.0 to 12.9 PPR points.
Adonai MitchellWR
NYJ · New York Jets
52%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Usage impact: share of team offense at stake ⓘn/ainputs missing
Role impact ⓘ— Not a key role
If he sits, teammates gain
Chance of missing: Frozen availability model (2026 blind test), prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Usage shift: Frozen usage-redistribution model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Status: nflverse injury report data (CC-BY-4.0), retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Usage impact: Share: nflverse player stats (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points). Role impact: Snaps: nflverse snap counts (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; starter = top 2026 season snap share in his position group (no 2026 depth chart captured); backup experience = career regular-season snaps in nflverse snap counts; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points).
Impact scores are small points on a fixed scale: his share of team usage (or role weight) times his chance of missing. High means the top 5% of 2017–2021 player-seasons, Medium the top 20%. The bold High badge appears only when a score is High and his chance of missing is at least 25%: 32 of 167 listed players this update.
Malik McClainWR · offense snaps11% → 20%+9
Isaiah WilliamsWR · target share11% → 15%+4
Tim PatrickWR · target share5% → 9%+4
How the estimate changed
Why: the nflverse injury file has not changed since Oct 16, 2026 02:15 AM ET (same SHA-256 in the last 8 captures), and no nflverse input this model reads has changed since Oct 16, 2026 10:16 AM ET. nflverse posts injury updates about once a day, usually overnight, so the estimate moves when that file does. Source: manifest_live.jsonl.
No change yet: 52% in all 19 updates (Oct 15, 2026 06:15 AM ET to Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET).
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Most weeks, Adonai Mitchell scores between 1.5 and 18.6 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 7.5. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 52% chance of missing) × typical 7.5 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard subtract 0.5× and 1× his median receptions (3.2, team-contribution model) from the typical points: an approximation, since a median minus a median is not exactly the median of the difference. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
If he plays
Assumes he plays. These ranges come from models fit only on games players actually played; so they do not account for his 52% chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted: 3.6PPR points · typical if he plays 7.5
Team contribution range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Most weeks, Adonai Mitchell adds between 0.0 and 5.5 catches. The projected middle is about 3.2.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = 10th percentile, projected = the middle outcome (median, dotted line), high = 90th percentile; a solid dot marks the actual result once the game is graded. The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Sources: frozen range-of-outcomes yards model; frozen team-contribution unit models (fit on 2014–2025, beat a trailing 8-game baseline on held-out seasons). Prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET.
If he plays
Assumes he plays. These ranges come from models fit only on games players actually played; so they do not account for his 52% chance of missing.
Receiving plus rushing yards: usually 7.2 to 89.8, projected about 36.0.
Teammates who gain if he sits
Malik McClain
WR
offense snaps: 11% → 20%
Isaiah Williams
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
WR
target share: 11% → 15%
Tim Patrick
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
WR
target share: 5% → 9%
Next man up
Snaps: nflverse snap counts (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; starter = top 2026 season snap share in his position group (no 2026 depth chart captured); backup experience = career regular-season snaps in nflverse snap counts; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points).
Tim Patrick (WR): 39% of snaps (average of the last 3 team games) and 3,321 career snaps, versus Adonai Mitchell at 0% over the same 3 games and 988 career snaps. That drop-off drives the role-impact score of 0.0 (Low).
In the news
Headlines and links only, last 7 days, matched by player name and team. Via the GDELT Project (gdeltproject.org); headlines belong to their publishers and are not reviewed or endorsed by us. Betting and promo outlets are excluded. Updated Oct 16, 2026 04:15 PM ET.