Bryce Lance injury status WR · NO · New Orleans Saints
Will Bryce Lance play? Fantasy outlook
Rules-based guide, not a validated prediction and not betting advice. Lineup call: Bench or hold if listed Out or Doubtful, or chance of missing at least 75%; Have a backup ready at 50% to 75%; otherwise Start with caution if chance of missing is 25% or more, he did not practice or was limited, he has the returning-from-injury flag, or his typical (median) fantasy points rank below the top 50% of players at his position with a range this update; Bench or hold if that rank is in the bottom 25% and he is not a QB; Start otherwise. Next man up is named when chance of missing is 25% or more. Ranges assume he plays. Every sentence is filled from the sourced fields elsewhere on this page.
Lineup call
Start with caution · Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup tier: Sit (No. 110 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
Why: 18% chance of missing his Week 6 game (Oct 18); typical 3.4 PPR points ranks 106 of 157 WRs with a range this update.
Rule that fired: typical points in the bottom half of WRs → Start with caution. A simple rule, not a model.
Lineup tier: Sit · No. 110 WR by risk-adjusted points (2.8 PPR)
18% chance of missing his Week 6 game (Oct 18).
Likely range for his Week 6 game (Oct 18), if he plays: 0.0 to 12.5 PPR points.
Team impact
If he sits, about 6% of the New Orleans Saints offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others. Usage impact 1.1 (Medium) is that share times his 18% chance of missing.
If he sits, the New Orleans Saints replace a starter who plays 70% of snaps; his next man up Barion Brown has 12 career regular-season snaps vs his 251. Role impact 10.1 (High).
Injury reports this season: none in our 2026 data.
Played 42% of snaps in Week 5 after 85% in Week 4 (nflverse snap counts).
We have no return timeline or medical detail beyond the listed report.
Games without a snap while on the New Orleans Saints roster: none (of 5 team games).
How long could he be out?
Does not apply: he has no Out, Doubtful or Questionable listing on a 2026 injury report in our data.
Bryce Lance
If he sits, about 6% of the New Orleans Saints offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the New Orleans Saints replace a starter who plays 70% of offense snaps; his backup Barion Brown has played 2% over the same games.
Chance of missing: Frozen availability model (2026 blind test), prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Status: nflverse injury report data (CC-BY-4.0), retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Usage impact: Share: nflverse player stats (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points). Role impact: Snaps: nflverse snap counts (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; starter = top 2026 season snap share in his position group (no 2026 depth chart captured); backup experience = career regular-season snaps in nflverse snap counts; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points).
Impact scores are small points on a fixed scale: his share of team usage (or role weight) times his chance of missing. High means the top 5% of 2017–2021 player-seasons, Medium the top 20%. The bold High badge appears only when a score is High and his chance of missing is at least 25%: 32 of 167 listed players this update.
WR
NO · New Orleans Saints
18%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Report: not on this week's report yet · played 42% of snaps in Week 5 after 85% in Week 4 (nflverse snap counts)
Usage impact ⓘ1.1 · Medium
Role impact ⓘ10.1 · High
How the estimate changed
Why: the nflverse injury file has not changed since Oct 16, 2026 02:15 AM ET (same SHA-256 in the last 8 captures), and no nflverse input this model reads has changed since Oct 16, 2026 10:16 AM ET. nflverse posts injury updates about once a day, usually overnight, so the estimate moves when that file does. Source: manifest_live.jsonl.
No change yet: 18% in all 19 updates (Oct 15, 2026 06:15 AM ET to Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET).
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Most weeks, Bryce Lance scores between 0.0 and 12.5 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 3.4. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 18% chance of missing) × typical 3.4 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard subtract 0.5× and 1× his median receptions (1.4, team-contribution model) from the typical points: an approximation, since a median minus a median is not exactly the median of the difference. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 2.8PPR points · typical if he plays 3.4
Team contribution range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Most weeks, Bryce Lance adds between 0.0 and 3.9 catches. The projected middle is about 1.4.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = 10th percentile, projected = the middle outcome (median, dotted line), high = 90th percentile; a solid dot marks the actual result once the game is graded. The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Sources: frozen range-of-outcomes yards model; frozen team-contribution unit models (fit on 2014–2025, beat a trailing 8-game baseline on held-out seasons). Prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET.
If he plays
Receiving plus rushing yards: usually 0.0 to 58.4, projected about 19.4.
Teammates who gain if he sits
No usage-shift scenario this update. Scenarios run only for starters (top two WRs and top TE by target share, top RB by carry share, last 3 team games); he is not one of them right now.
Next man up
Snaps: nflverse snap counts (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; starter = top 2026 season snap share in his position group (no 2026 depth chart captured); backup experience = career regular-season snaps in nflverse snap counts; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points).
Barion Brown (WR): 2% of snaps (average of the last 3 team games) and 12 career snaps, versus Bryce Lance at 70% over the same 3 games and 251 career snaps. That drop-off drives the role-impact score of 10.1 (High).
Related markets (external)
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