Will Marcus Mariota play? Fantasy outlook
Rules-based guide, not a validated prediction and not betting advice. Lineup call: Bench or hold if listed Out or Doubtful, or chance of missing at least 75%; Have a backup ready at 50% to 75%; otherwise Start with caution if chance of missing is 25% or more, he did not practice or was limited, he has the returning-from-injury flag, or his typical (median) fantasy points rank below the top 50% of players at his position with a range this update; Bench or hold if that rank is in the bottom 25% and he is not a QB; Start otherwise. Next man up is named when chance of missing is 25% or more. Ranges assume he plays. Every sentence is filled from the sourced fields elsewhere on this page.
Lineup call
Have a backup ready · Week 6 game (Oct 19)
Lineup tier: Sit (No. 49 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
Why: 63% chance of missing his Week 6 game (Oct 19); practice: Did not practice (DNP); typical 7.5 PPR points ranks 37 of 64 QBs with a range this update.
Rule that fired: chance of missing 50%–75% → Have a backup ready. A simple rule, not a model.
Lineup tier: Sit · No. 49 QB by risk-adjusted points (2.8 PPR)
63% chance of missing his Week 6 game (Oct 19).
Likely range for his Week 6 game (Oct 19), if he plays: 0.0 to 18.8 PPR points.
Team impact
If he sits, about 51% of the Washington Commanders offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others. Usage impact 32.4 (High) is that share times his 63% chance of missing.
Season impact
2026 snap share by week: Week 2 45%, Week 3 100%, Week 4 16% (nflverse snap counts).
Roster status: Week 5 INA (nflverse weekly rosters).
Injury reports this season: Week 1 Full practice; Week 5 Out, Did not practice (DNP) (Knee); Week 6 Did not practice (DNP).
Played 16% of snaps in Week 4 after 100% in Week 3 (nflverse snap counts).
We have no return timeline or medical detail beyond the listed report.
Games without a snap while on the Washington Commanders roster: Week 1, Week 5 (of 5 team games).
How long could he be out?
He was listed Out (Knee) on the Week 5 report, his latest with a game status (none yet for Week 6). Of 1,349 times a player was listed Out with a knee injury (2014–2025 regular seasons), 0% missed no games, 23% missed 1 game, 22% missed 2 games, 55% missed 3 or more in a row; median 3 or more games. This is history, not a prognosis for him.
Held-out check: shares from 2014–2021 were within 3 points of what happened in 2022–2025 for this group.
Counts consecutive team games missed (0 offensive and 0 defensive snaps, or inactive or on a reserve list) starting with the game the listing was for; byes are skipped; runs cut short by the end of the season or a roster move are kept only if they had reached 3 games. Groups: status and body part, then status and position group, then status, whichever first has at least 30 past listings. nflverse injury reports, snap counts and weekly rosters, 2014–2025. No medical detail and no return timeline.
Similar past cases: median 3 or more games missed in a row.
History, not a prognosis.