Rules-based guide, not a validated prediction and not betting advice. Lineup call: Bench or hold if listed Out or Doubtful, or chance of missing at least 75%; Have a backup ready at 50% to 75%; otherwise Start with caution if chance of missing is 25% or more, he did not practice or was limited, he has the returning-from-injury flag, or his typical (median) fantasy points rank below the top 50% of players at his position with a range this update; Bench or hold if that rank is in the bottom 25% and he is not a QB; Start otherwise. Next man up is named when chance of missing is 25% or more. Ranges assume he plays. Every sentence is filled from the sourced fields elsewhere on this page.
Lineup call
Bench or hold · Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup tier: Sit (No. 108 of 108 TEs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
Why: 84% chance of missing his Week 7 game (Oct 25); typical 6.4 PPR points ranks 22 of 108 TEs with a range this update.
Rule that fired: chance of missing 75% or more → Bench or hold. A simple rule, not a model.
Lineup tier: Sit · No. 108 TE by risk-adjusted points (1.1 PPR)
84% chance of missing his Week 7 game (Oct 25).
Likely range for his Week 7 game (Oct 25), if he plays: 1.6 to 16.9 PPR points.
Next man up: Gavin Bartholomew (31% of snaps over the last 3 team games).
Team impact
If he sits, about 10% of the Minnesota Vikings offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others. Usage impact 8.5 (High) is that share times his 84% chance of missing.
If he sits, the Minnesota Vikings replace a starter who plays 56% of snaps; his next man up Gavin Bartholomew has 65 career regular-season snaps vs his 5,036. Role impact 29.1 (High).
If he sits: Myles Price offense snaps 13% → 33%; Jeshaun Jones offense snaps 6% → 23%; Ben Yurosek offense snaps 40% → 52%.
Injury reports this season: none in our 2026 data.
Played 3% of snaps in Week 5 after 83% in Week 4 (nflverse snap counts).
We have no return timeline or medical detail beyond the listed report.
Games without a snap while on the Minnesota Vikings roster: none (of 5 team games).
How long could he be out?
He has no game status yet on the Week 6 report; his chance of missing is 84%. Of 598 past listings (2017–2025 regular seasons) where an earlier, out-of-fold version of our availability model gave a 75% or more chance of missing, 38% missed no games, 25% missed 1 game, 13% missed 2 games, 24% missed 3 or more in a row; median 1 game. This is history, not a prognosis for him.
Grouped by model chance, not by injury, because he has no game status to match on.
Held-out check: shares from 2017–2021 were within 10 points of what happened in 2022–2025 for this group.
Counts consecutive team games missed (0 offensive and 0 defensive snaps, or inactive or on a reserve list) starting with the game the listing was for; byes are skipped; runs cut short by the end of the season or a roster move are kept only if they had reached 3 games. Groups: status and body part, then status and position group, then status, whichever first has at least 30 past listings. nflverse injury reports, snap counts and weekly rosters, 2014–2025. No medical detail and no return timeline.
Similar past cases: median 1 game missed in a row.
History, not a prognosis.
Missed no games38%
Missed 1 game25%
Missed 2 games13%
Missed 3 or more24%
Next man up if he sits: Gavin Bartholomew. We have no range for him in this update.
T.J. Hockenson
If he sits, about 10% of the Minnesota Vikings offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Minnesota Vikings replace a starter who plays 56% of offense snaps; his backup Gavin Bartholomew has played 31% over the same games.
TE
MIN · Minnesota Vikings
84%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Report: not on this week's report yet · MIN had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report; played 3% of snaps in Week 5 after 83% in Week 4 (nflverse snap counts)
Usage impact ⓘ8.5HighHigh
Role impact ⓘ29.1HighHigh
If he and Jordan Addison sit, teammates gain
Chance of missing: Frozen availability model (2026 blind test), prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Usage shift: Frozen usage-redistribution model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Status: nflverse injury report data (CC-BY-4.0), retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Usage impact: Share: nflverse player stats (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points). Role impact: Snaps: nflverse snap counts (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; starter = top 2026 season snap share in his position group (no 2026 depth chart captured); backup experience = career regular-season snaps in nflverse snap counts; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points).
Impact scores are small points on a fixed scale: his share of team usage (or role weight) times his chance of missing. High means the top 5% of 2017–2021 player-seasons, Medium the top 20%. The bold High badge appears only when a score is High and his chance of missing is at least 25%: 32 of 167 listed players this update.
Myles PriceWR · offense snaps13% → 33%+20
Jeshaun JonesWR · offense snaps6% → 23%+17
Ben YurosekTE · offense snaps40% → 52%+12
Jauan JenningsWR · target share5% → 11%+6
How the estimate changed
Why: the nflverse injury file has not changed since Oct 16, 2026 02:15 AM ET (same SHA-256 in the last 8 captures), and no nflverse input this model reads has changed since Oct 16, 2026 10:16 AM ET. nflverse posts injury updates about once a day, usually overnight, so the estimate moves when that file does. Source: manifest_live.jsonl.
No change yet: 84% in all 19 updates (Oct 15, 2026 06:15 AM ET to Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET).
Likely range: Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Most weeks, T.J. Hockenson scores between 1.6 and 16.9 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 6.4. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 84% chance of missing) × typical 6.4 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard subtract 0.5× and 1× his median receptions (2.8, team-contribution model) from the typical points: an approximation, since a median minus a median is not exactly the median of the difference. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
If he plays
Assumes he plays. These ranges come from models fit only on games players actually played; so they do not account for his 84% chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted: 1.1PPR points · typical if he plays 6.4
Team contribution range: Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Most weeks, T.J. Hockenson adds between 0.0 and 5.9 catches. The projected middle is about 2.8.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = 10th percentile, projected = the middle outcome (median, dotted line), high = 90th percentile; a solid dot marks the actual result once the game is graded. The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Sources: frozen range-of-outcomes yards model; frozen team-contribution unit models (fit on 2014–2025, beat a trailing 8-game baseline on held-out seasons). Prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET.
If he plays
Assumes he plays. These ranges come from models fit only on games players actually played; so they do not account for his 84% chance of missing.
Receiving plus rushing yards: usually 0.0 to 63.4, projected about 27.3.
Teammates who gain if he sits
Myles Price
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
WR
offense snaps: 13% → 33%
Jeshaun Jones
WR
offense snaps: 6% → 23%
Ben Yurosek
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
TE
offense snaps: 40% → 52%
Next man up
Snaps: nflverse snap counts (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; starter = top 2026 season snap share in his position group (no 2026 depth chart captured); backup experience = career regular-season snaps in nflverse snap counts; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points).
Gavin Bartholomew (TE): 31% of snaps (average of the last 3 team games) and 65 career snaps, versus T.J. Hockenson at 56% over the same 3 games and 5,036 career snaps. That drop-off drives the role-impact score of 29.1 (High).
Other Minnesota Vikings players we track
Page built Oct 16, 2026 04:59 PM ET from prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET; injury report retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET.